Stock Market Research
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The March thesis has played out faster than I expected. Guidance was raised twice, margins held, and the stock is up about 45%. The question now is not the business but the price, and I'm trimming into strength.
Follows up on: Nvidia: the data-center cycle has another legRead research →
Energy has been under-owned all year, Exxon has kept capital spending flat while production rose, and the stock just broke out of a two-month range on volume. A sector-rotation idea with a company-specific reason to prefer this name.
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Broadcom builds the custom accelerators that the largest cloud providers design for themselves. That business is growing faster than the merchant market and carries software-like margins, yet the stock trades as a mature semiconductor name.
Read research →Costco's renewal rate, traffic and membership fee growth are as good as they have ever been. The problem is the price: the stock trades at a multiple that leaves no room for a single bad quarter. A great business I'm watching, not buying.
Read research →Apple's services segment now earns more gross profit than the iPhone, grows at double digits, and gets no separate credit in the multiple. The base the stock has been building since June looks like accumulation to me.
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Revenue growth has slowed to single digits, and the market has punished the stock for it. What it has not fully credited is the margin expansion that came with the slowdown. Free cash flow per share is growing faster than it did in the high-growth years.
Read research →Microsoft's cloud growth is well known. What is less discussed is that cloud gross margin has been drifting lower as the company builds capacity ahead of demand. My view: that is temporary, and the stock rerates when the trend turns.
Read research →Chevron's production growth comes from a basin it already owns, its dividend has grown for decades, and the stock yields more than the market. A slower, higher-yielding way to own the same energy rotation as Exxon.
Read research →Parks and experiences earn most of the operating profit and grow every year. Streaming has turned profitable and is now the swing factor. The stock has gone nowhere for years because the two stories argue with each other; I think the argument is ending.
Read research →Automotive gross margin has fallen for six straight quarters while the stock trades on products that do not ship yet. I have no position and no strong view on direction; this report is about why, and what would change that.
Read research →Every large buyer of accelerators wants a second supplier, and AMD is the only one with a product shipping at scale. It does not need to win; it needs to keep a seat at the table. At this price I think that is mostly, but not fully, priced.
Read research →Comparable sales have been flat to down for two years because nobody moves house when mortgage rates are high. That cycle turns eventually, and Home Depot is the cleanest way to own the turn. The question is timing, and I don't try to guess it.
Read research →JPMorgan earns the highest returns in its group and trades at a premium that reflects it. I like the business and dislike the price. This report sets the levels at which that changes.
Read research →Demand for the weight-loss drugs exceeds what the company can make, and it has been that way for two years. Every new plant that comes online converts waiting patients into revenue. The multiple is high; the earnings growth behind it is higher.
Read research →One drug is most of the profit, and its patent expires within the decade. The stock trades as if nothing replaces it. The pipeline says otherwise, but pipelines are promises, so I'm sizing this small.
Read research →My initial thesis on Nvidia: the data-center build-out is earlier in its cycle than the bears think, gross margin has a floor the market is not pricing, and the stock is cheap on next year's numbers if the guidance holds.
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Two things are happening at once: cloud growth is reaccelerating, and the retail business is finally showing operating leverage. Either alone would justify a look; both together make this my highest-conviction large-cap idea for the year.
Read research →Netflix raised prices again and subscriber growth did not slow. That is the definition of pricing power, and it explains the multiple. The ad tier adds a second lever. What I'm watching is whether the next increase gets the same reaction.
Read research →The bear case says AI answers replace search and the ad business erodes. The numbers so far say the opposite: search revenue keeps growing and the AI features are increasing query volume. I think the fear is worth more than the risk, which makes the stock cheap.
Read research →Meta's core advertising business is the best in the industry, and it funds a capital-spending program that keeps growing with no stated return target. Whether that spending earns its cost is the whole debate on the stock. My answer: probably, but I want to be paid for the uncertainty.
Read research →A new management team, a stock down by more than half from its high, and a brand that is still the largest in its category. Turnarounds take longer than anyone plans for, so this report is a checklist of what has to happen before I buy.
Read research →The commercial business is growing faster than almost any software company its size, the government business is a moat, and margins keep expanding. I still can't make the valuation work. This report explains what I would need to see to change that.
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