Fed holds, market shrugs: what the tape did after the statement
The Fed left rates unchanged and the statement barely moved. Stocks chopped for an hour, then drifted higher into the close while long bonds gave back the morning bid.
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Nvidia into earnings: what is priced in and what isn't
Nvidia reports after the close on Wednesday. The options market is pricing a wide move, the stock sits just under its August high, and the debate is whether guidance can clear a bar that keeps rising.
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Energy takes the lead as money rotates out of tech
For the first time since spring, energy topped the weekly sector table while technology finished last. One week is not a trend, but the breadth behind the move was better than I expected.
Sources:Weekly sector performance table
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A quiet tape into Fed week
The narrowest daily range in a month, light volume, and nothing broken. Days like this are for cleaning up the watch list, not for trading.
Sources:Economic calendar for next week
Read newsletter →Apple breaks out of a three-month base
Apple closed above the top of the range it has been building since June, on the best volume in six weeks. The setup is clean; the question is whether the index cooperates.
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Yields push higher and the banks like it
The ten-year yield is back at its highest level since spring. Long bonds sold off, banks rallied, and the rate-sensitive corners of the market told the same story all day.
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Semis pull back: normal or the start of something?
The semiconductor group fell about three percent, its worst day in a month, after leading the market for two weeks. The pullback looked orderly, but I'm keeping an eye on it.
Read newsletter →Options expiration Friday: pinned all day
A quarterly options expiration with the index pinned to a round number from the open to the close. Not a day to read much into, and I didn't.
Read newsletter →Bank earnings preview: what I want to hear from JPMorgan and Goldman
Big banks kick off the next earnings season in a few weeks, and the stocks have run ahead of it. I have three questions for the calls and one level on each chart.
Read newsletter →Fed preview: three scenarios and how I'd trade each
The decision lands on the 29th. Here are the three outcomes I think are possible, what each would do to the tape, and the plan I've written down for each so I'm not deciding live.
Sources:Fed meeting calendar
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