Palantir: a great business at a price I can't defend
The commercial business is growing faster than almost any software company its size, the government business is a moat, and margins keep expanding. I still can't make the valuation work. This report explains what I would need to see to change that.
Sample research report used to test the layout. Delete before launch.
Thesis
Everything about the business is going right, and the stock knows it. At this multiple, the company has to keep growing at its current rate for years, and a single slower quarter would be punished hard.
Catalysts
- Commercial customer count and revenue per customer.
- Large government contracts, which are lumpy but high-margin.
Risks
- Valuation, above all else.
- Government budget timing.
What would prove me wrong
Growth accelerating from here. It might, and the stock would keep working. I would rather miss that than own it at this price.
Position
None. A pullback of forty percent with the growth rate intact would get my attention.