Nvidia into earnings: what is priced in and what isn't
Nvidia reports after the close on Wednesday. The options market is pricing a wide move, the stock sits just under its August high, and the debate is whether guidance can clear a bar that keeps rising.
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Nvidia reports on Wednesday after the close, and the whole tape will trade around it on Thursday. Here is how I’m framing it.
What the market is pricing
- The options market implies a move of roughly seven to eight percent in either direction, in line with the last four quarters.
- The stock has rallied for three weeks into the print and sits just under the August high. Most of the easy upside from “beat and raise” is already in the price.
- AMD has quietly outperformed over the same stretch, which usually means expectations for the whole group are high.
What would change my mind
Bullish: data-center revenue guidance above the highest published estimate, and margin commentary that does not mention supply constraints.
Bearish: anything that sounds like customers pausing orders while they digest capacity. The stock would fill the gap from earlier this month quickly.
“Expectations are the highest they’ve been going into a print this year,” one preview note said, which is about the only line all of them agreed on.
My plan
I don’t hold positions through earnings, so this is a watch-and-react setup for Thursday morning. The two levels that matter to me are the August high above and the top of the early-September gap below. A clean move through either with volume is a trade; anything in between is noise.
Updated Sep 29: corrected the report day, which I had as Tuesday.