Apple breaks out of a three-month base
Apple closed above the top of the range it has been building since June, on the best volume in six weeks. The setup is clean; the question is whether the index cooperates.
Sample newsletter used to test the layout. Delete before launch.
I have had Apple on the watch list since July, waiting for the range to resolve. Today it did.
The setup
- Base: roughly three months long, about twelve percent from top to bottom, with three tests of the lows that held each time.
- Trigger: a close above the range high on volume around 1.6 times the 50-day average.
- Context: the Nasdaq 100 is at highs and megacap leadership is broadening, which is the environment where breakouts in the largest names tend to work.
The trade, as written before the close
| Item | Level |
|---|---|
| Entry | Close above the range high |
| Stop | Back inside the range, below the breakout day’s low |
| First target | Measured move from the base, about one range-height higher |
| Risk | Under one percent of the account |
What would prove me wrong
A close back inside the range within the next three sessions. That is the classic failed breakout, and I would take the small loss without arguing.
The event coverage and the analyst notes I read are linked below. None of them changed the plan; the chart did.