Bank earnings preview: what I want to hear from JPMorgan and Goldman
Big banks kick off the next earnings season in a few weeks, and the stocks have run ahead of it. I have three questions for the calls and one level on each chart.
Sample newsletter used to test the layout. Delete before launch.
The banks report first every season, and this time they go in at or near highs. That raises the bar.
Three questions
- Net interest income guidance. With yields drifting higher, do they raise the full-year number or hold it? Holding it at these levels would read as caution.
- Credit. Any change in the language around consumer card losses. The trend has been slowly worse for a year; the market wants to hear “stable.”
- Trading and banking fees. Goldman in particular. Deal activity has picked up and the stock has priced a good quarter already.
The charts
- JPM is extended above its 50-day average. I would not buy it here; I would buy a pullback to that average if the report is good.
- GS is in a tight range under its high. A breakout on the report is the bullish case; a rejection there is the bearish one. Simple.
Positioning
None yet. This note exists so that when the reports land I have already decided what matters, instead of reacting to headlines.