Tesla delivery chatter and a chart that hasn't decided yet
Delivery estimates for the quarter are all over the map, and the chart reflects it: a wide, choppy range with no edge in either direction. A note on why I'm staying out.
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Every quarter the delivery number becomes the story two weeks before it lands, and every quarter the range of estimates is wide enough to drive a truck through. This quarter is no different.
The chart
- A range about twenty percent wide that has been in place since early summer.
- Three failed breakouts, two failed breakdowns. Every move that looked like a trend reversed within a week.
- Volume is falling. Nobody is committed.
Why I’m out
I only trade this name when the chart is trending, because the news flow is too random to trade a range in. Right now it is not trending. Being out is a position, and it’s the right one for me here.
What would get me interested
A weekly close outside the range, in either direction, on volume. Then the delivery number becomes a catalyst for a move that has already started, which is the only kind I want to be in.