Week ahead: retail sales, quad witching, and a market at highs
A busy week: retail sales on Tuesday, quarterly options expiration on Friday, and an index sitting at all-time highs going into both. Here's the map.
Sample newsletter used to test the layout. Delete before launch.
Weeks like this are where most of my mistakes happen, so the map is longer than usual.
The calendar
| Day | Event | What I’ll watch |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | Retail sales | Consumer names at the open |
| Wednesday | Bank earnings previews start | Nothing to trade, notes only |
| Thursday | Jobless claims | Only if the number is far from consensus |
| Friday | Quarterly expiration | Expect pinning; ignore the close |
The Fed meets at the end of the month. The preview with three scenarios comes out this week, well before the noise starts.
Where the market is
At highs, with semiconductors leading and energy just starting to wake up. Breadth is decent. The one warning sign is that the leaders are extended; the one comfort is that earnings estimates keep rising.
The short list
- NVDA: extended, no trade until it rests.
- XOM: watching for a breakout from a two-month range. Volume will tell.
- The index itself: if it holds the prior week’s low, the trend stays intact and the pullback buyers stay in control.